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Description:

This 346 page book was written as a result of Robyn Dawes' classes in rational decision making.  In the preface Dr. Dawes, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, states that these classes were the most popular he taught and this was one reason for writing the book.  The other major reason was his belief that understanding the principles of rational decision making will enable people to improve the quality of their choices and consequently, their lives.

Throughout the book, basic principles of rationality are compared with actual behavior in reaching decisions.  Most of us are frequently irrational.  This irrationality is not due to random errors or mistakes but to automatic thought processes that influence how decision problems are conceptualized and how future possibilities in life are evaluated.  This is pointed out throughout the book in a systematic and understandable fashion.

Along with relevant research Dr. Dawes presents many anecdotes to illustrate how our thinking systematically deviates from principles of rationality.  Although this is not lightweight reading, the material is presented in a relatively nontechnical fashion, with the basic concepts of probability and statistics placed in appendices at the end.
  

Discussion:

This is an extremely important book, providing information clearly and concisely that is seldom presented together.  Its relevance for child abuse is that it provides a sound framework for evaluating what is said and written about child abuse.  For example, Dr. Dawes, in discussing the bias inherent in generalizing from personal experience writes:

My colleagues who claim to know that no child abusers stop on their own do in fact have experience with abusers.  The problem is, of course, that these therapists; experience is limited to those who have not stopped on their own, and since their experience is in treatment settings, these abusers cannot by definition stop without therapy.  What happens as a result is that the very nature of my colleagues' experience precludes contact with the subset of people whose extent is at issue: child abusers who stop on their own.  But that is not realized (p. 102).

In addition to discussing and illustrating errors in thinking and decision making, Dr. Dawes addresses "giving up cherished ideas" in Chapter 11.  He illustrates the resistance of psychologists to giving up their irrational beliefs through a critical discussion of the Rorschach and of handwriting analysis, neither of which, according to Dr. Dawes, is reliable or valid.

The appendices at the end present a concise summary of probability theory, distributions and the law of large numbers, statistical significance, sampling, effect size, and the seductiveness of post hoc analysis.  These provide a good review for others like myself who took graduate school statistics thirty years ago.

This book provides a sound base upon which to evaluate what is asserted about any topic.  Although most of the anecdotes and examples are not about child abuse, there are many places where the concepts make sense out of the myths and errors in thinking that are rampant in this area.  Readers will not only find themselves questioning many assertions made by others, but will begin questioning their own dearly held beliefs.

This book is recommended to anyone who wishes to think straighter, and to have better tools to evaluate what is claimed about any topic.  It is particularly helpful in evaluating claims and assertions about child sexual abuse.

Reviewed by Hollida Wakefield, Institute for Psychological Therapies, Northfield, Minnesota.